My Apologies, just looked at the original rules. Here is some mathmatica;
So Current 'Official' Rules;
30-45cm 1D6 Scatter
45-60cm 2D6 Scatter
60+ 3D6 Scatter
For these values it has:
1D6 Scatter: 55.5% chance of a direct hit, and a 22% chance of an indirect hit on a small base. On a large base it has a 66% chance of a direct hit, and a 22% chance of an indirect one.
2D6 Scatter: 35.1% chance of a direct hit, and a 9.1% chance of an indirect hit on a small base. On a large base it has a 38.5% chance of a direct hit, and a 12.8% chance of an indirect one.
3D6 Scatter: 33.3% chance of a direct hit, and a 2.3% chance of an indirect hit on a small base. On a large base it has a 33.8% chance of a direct hit, and a 3.3% chance of an indirect one.
Translating these into pure damage, assuming that direct hits=average 3.5 hits, and indirect hits average 1, and also assuming equal opportunities for large and small bases we have:
1D6: 2.35 hits average
2D6: 1.4 hits average
3D6: 1.2 hits average
So not much different from 3D6 to 2D6, other than when it misses it goes farther. However let's compare old to current rules; I know that there are some ambiguities to where targets lie in a game. Meaning, I've had games where NCs fired a number of times within the 30cm bracket, and all too often the 60-150cm section really didn't mean anything. So there is some 'manipulation to the numbers' here.
In this case, I am only counting half of the 60-150cm bracket. So lets say, that this is only 60-105, or 45cm.
So we have:
15cm of 1D6
15cm of 2D6
45cm of 3D6
Or an average damage output of 1.47. Naturally according to old rules, where the scatter was 1D6 under 60 and 2D6 over, this would be more like 1.78. Reducing the NCs efficacy by about 20%.
We had in system a re-rolling mechanism, where ships on LO orders could re-roll the scatter. Math looks like this for the NC in that case:
1D6: 80% direct vs. small bases, 10% indirect. 87.8% against large, 6% indirect
2D6: 56.3% direct vs. small, 6.3% indirect. 62.5% direct vs. large, 11.5% indirect
3D6: 55.5% direct vs. small, 1% indirect. 55.7% direct vs. large, 2.3% indirect
Or
1D6: 3.01 Hits average
2D6: 2.17 Hits average
3D6: 1.96 Hits average
With the 'reroll' system it really beefs up the long range damage. Making it an average overall (using the previous weighing system) of 2.213 or about 50% better than official rules.
Now looking at things that we could do;
Admiral D' proposed that reroll hits could only be glancing regardless of if the hole is over the base, meaning that you only do D3 damage in those circumstance, adding this to 'official' rules, this would mean;
1D6: 2.68 hits average
2D6: 1.82 hits average
3D6: 1.6 hits average
Average overall: 1.865 or 27% better than current rules.
Now if you take Admiral D's concept another way, in that if an NC hits a base, but is not over the center peg then damage looks like this (re-rolls included):
1D6: 2.71
2D6: 2.01
3D6: 1.74
Or an average of 1.988 or 35% better than current.
Now my proposal of dropping a D6 would have an average of: 1.78, or 20% better than current, however this seems a little boring now.
What I think in general;
Rerolling the scatter does make a bit more sense, obviously if it is done with normal efficacy then the weapon becomes too powerful. I do like Admiral D's system, although it is a little strange, and one disadvantage here is that on the rerolls it doesn't have the crippling capability, and is quite a bit more stable, so though it has a better damage output, it is lacking in a way. With my proposed system, it does a little less damage on average, but doesn't weaken the weapon.
Other things that could be done:
Altering the width of the bands, it does seem weird to me that 1D6 and 2D6 only occupy a small proportion of the entire NC range.
So finally I think that Admiral D's Proposition makes the most sense, meaning NCs on LO special orders may re-roll the scatter die regardless of result, however the 'hole' of the template must be centered over the stem of the ship to do 1D6 damage, if the hole is situated anywhere else on the base then it only does 1D3.
This should be a 37% improvement in the NC, at least when vessels are on LO, and provide a reason to be locked on. It also works well with the game, (re-rolling) and with logic (near misses shouldn't do quite so much damage).