Gunnery and dice probability

[Sigoroth]

One last note about clean vs dirty space. Yes, the game gets cluttered. You do however get a number of clean shots in each turn. That's why the comparisons noted have been clean space, because the Carnages would be fired first, as your primary gunships. Lances are great support guns and so lance-boats are support ships.

Towards the end of the game you may not be guaranteed clear shots. However at this point you'll be at closer range. All you have to do is avoid the furthest right column against 5+ armour and the next column in against 6+ armour, but even this last one isn't that bad (comparison against variant Murder), dropping only 1/6 of a hit when not locked on and gaining parity if locked on.

Yes, Carnages are generally in squadron. In larger games you will have more than one target and so get more than one clean shot. This can be from another Carnage squadron or maybe just improved performance from another ship or squadron (perhaps a Vengeance or the fixed Despoiler for example).

Forming squadrons is beneficial for increasing chances of LO as well as combined firepower. On the other hand the MMH combination so often favoured has no reason to squadron beyond trying to hide the Hades. The Carnages being on your back lines and abeam are quite resilient, whereas the MMH squadron will take a pounding, so take a huge amount of damage or brace and lose a lot of firepower.

[Admiral_d_Artagnan]

I used to play the 3M+1H combo and yes, it will in all likelihood be at the receiving end of a lot of shots. However, in my case I do accept that reality and I will not brace, trusting to my shields and armor just so I can get out 2 turns of 10 lances on LO against a non Eldar opponent. Sure a ship could be crippled but by the third turn the squadron should already be amidst the enemy formation and still on LO and would be trying for at least targets in each fire arc.

The Styx and Devs would then be supporting the squadron with AC and additional long range lance fire to pick off the cripples from the 3MH attack.

This isn't a tactic meant for everyone. The tactic is one I would risk and requires one to accept that ships will most likely be crippled but that the squadron might itself also do serious damage to the enemy fleet. Crazy? Maybe but it does work.

[Phthisis]

Ok, so I think we have narrowed it down.  If you squadron all your Carnages together AND stay abeam AND plan on fighting under 30cm AND there are no blast markers in the way AND your targets will largely be capital ships and defenses, then the Carnage is your ship.  With the exception of Eldar, lance Murders are better in every other situation. 
Of course if youre planning on fighting inside 30cm you'd be much better off taking Slaughters.

The supremacy of the Carnage is not so clean cut as Sigi and Horizon have made it sound.  If youre playing slop, especially under 2000pts, with no real strategy then the squdroned Carnage is a good all rounder.  But if you have a plan and are savvy to how a Chaos fleet can work, youre better off with Slaughters/Murders.
Its possible to reliably stay in the 30-45cm range.  Last game I played against IN, not a single IN cruiser was able to use batteries or lances on me throughout the entire game.

[Sigoroth]

Ok, so I think we have narrowed it down.  If you squadron all your Carnages together AND stay abeam AND plan on fighting under 30cm AND there are no blast markers in the way AND your targets will largely be capital ships and defenses, then the Carnage is your ship.  With the exception of Eldar, lance Murders are better in every other situation. 
Of course if youre planning on fighting inside 30cm you'd be much better off taking Slaughters.

Firstly, there's very little reason not to squadron Carnages. Squadron rules have large downsides mostly, but with their resilience due to aspect and position it's not such a large problem. Secondly, there's no reason to not stay abeam. This is the preferred stance. Closing is a side-effect of the other ships. To be used effectively they must close. Thirdly, there is no need at all to "plan" at fighting under 30cm range. This will happen regardless of what your plans are. The Carnage is useful for taking the initiative, since you have range, firepower and resilience (for little cost) the enemy is forced to react to you. In other words, they can't just sit back and turn it into a long range slugfest. They will close to make reply. When they do, your firepower gets better. If I simply took a Slaughter instead then my opponents wouldn't have to close on me. I'd have to close on them. Therefore they'd have the resilience and initiative, not I. Fourthly you will have clean shots with the vast majority of your Carnage attacks. It is the nature of the game. You start clean and your opponent leaves his BMs behind when he moves. You are moving sideways, leaving behind any BMs on your own ships, leaving the interim clear. It is only when you get up close and personal that BMs become an issue for the Carnages, but not even then is it a consistent worry and is more than made up for by the extra firepower of the Carnage and loss of long range shifts. So basically you've narrowed it down to: "IF you're fighting under the most common conditions in the game and/or against an unknown fleet THEN take Carnages, ELSE Murders are usable". 

As for capital ships, well actually, since abeam escorts at long range are not a threat they will not be a primary target of your Carnages. If you're playing against a predominantly escort fleet then at some of those escorts must be closing, else the escort fleet will be destroyed by long range fire without ever firing a single shot of their own. The vast majority of escorts in the game are 5+ armour. Against these targets the Carnage performs better than the Murder. 1.33 average hits vs 1 hit (41% chance of destroying an escort vs 25% from the Murder). There are a few escorts which have 6+ armour, mainly Orks with 6+ prows. For which the Carnages will only have an average of 0.67 hits (13% chance of a kill). Of course, the Orks have 4+ rear armour which the Carnages will make better use of and you do have Devs with lances and a-boats to back up your Carnages, and you do get more shots at long range since you're not closing on them but hey, if you have a strong feeling that you're going to be coming up against an all escort Ork fleet then feel free to take Murders. Don't complain to me when those Ork gunships hit your ships hard on their glass chins though.

The supremacy of the Carnage is not so clean cut as Sigi and Horizon have made it sound.  If youre playing slop, especially under 2000pts, with no real strategy then the squdroned Carnage is a good all rounder.  But if you have a plan and are savvy to how a Chaos fleet can work, youre better off with Slaughters/Murders.

What? If you're playing "slop" then take Murders. They have the "don't care" weaponry. Weapon batteries are much harder to use, but given the strength of the Carnages weaponry and the most common conditions under which you find yourself during a game they easily make up for the "no-brainer" Murders with only a modicum of thought. Hell, the fact that people bring up blast markers and abeam capital ships at long range just goes to show that they have not thought through the starting conditions and progress of a typical battle. They simply let their fears of bad performance and terror of 6's rule them. The Murder has no actual advantage over the Carnage. It is a liability. Sure, under certain circumstances it can gain higher average hits. They will not, however, get higher average hits over the course of an entire game. As the game progresses and conditions change those changes will favour the Carnage more than the Murder. Furthermore, since the game is about 3 things (damage, resilience and positioning/range) the Carnage wins hands down in the positioning/range department, increasing resilience and taking initiative (ie, forcing the enemy to react). Any momentary loss of pure firepower is both minimal and compensated for by these other advantages.

Its possible to reliably stay in the 30-45cm range.  Last game I played against IN, not a single IN cruiser was able to use batteries or lances on me throughout the entire game.

I call bullshit. There is no way to do what you say. Against a closing fleet you cannot stay at range. It simply can't be done. The best you could do is fly directly away from your enemy using carriers to "fire" behind you. You will run out of board doing this. I also find it impossible to believe that you destroyed an entire fleet before they got to within 30cm. You would need absolutely stupendous luck to do this, for which you'd require Carnages anyway, not Murders.

[left of west]

It doesn't take stupendous luck, Sigoroth--just a stupendously incompetent opponent.  Luck would do it, but, frankly, it seems less likely.

[Phthisis]

It was a 1k battle.  I had 2 Devs, a Murder, a Carnage and an Acheron.  He had 2 Lunars, 2 Dictators, a Dauntless ans a pair of Swords.
He set up facing straight towards me.  I set up abeam to him.  As he closed I turned wide and formed a line astern about 35cm off his flank.  He turned into me as I was out of range of his guns.  I brought down one Lunar over 3 turns and 'flaming tombed' the other after it rammed one Dev.  Then I hulked one Dictator and two ships dueled with his remaining Dictator.  My Carnage ran off with his Dauntless and Escorts.  Despite firing broadsides twice at the closing Dauntless the Carnage did only 1 point of damage.  
I took damage and lost 2 ships, but it was entirely fue to ordnance and ramming.  No IN broadsides were ever fired.

I pulled a similar manouver against Taggerung to dodge his Ork torp shotgun tactic.  I got around his flank at a distance out of his range.  He couldn't turn to face me and fight so he disengaged.  Blew up a BB before he did it, but still disengaged.  I wouldn't say it was luck and I definately wouldn't call Taggerung incompetent at all.  He's actually a very good player.

[Taggerung]

Well to be fair...if I had realized about the hulks on the table rule, I wouldn't have disengaged lol. I should have just burned retro's and came about. Oh well, won't happen again.

[Phthisis]

True.  You would have been better off sticking around. 
I only brought it up as a 2nd example of avoiding getting into close in broadside battles.  Its very possible to manouver in a way that allows a Chaos fleet to stay at range.

I look forward to hulking Gorbag someday, btw

[Taggerung]

Gorbag has yet to even be crippled. She is my flagship, and despite being right in the front...is never targeted lol

[Phthisis]

Gorbag is my Bismark.

But it hasn't been up front for me yet.  There has been a bunch of terror ships and escorts in the way.  But it will happen.  Oh yes.  It will happen.   

[Sigoroth]

True.  You would have been better off sticking around. 
I only brought it up as a 2nd example of avoiding getting into close in broadside battles.  Its very possible to manouver in a way that allows a Chaos fleet to stay at range.

What are you talking about? He rammed you. His decision not to shoot you was his own. Even with ramming he could have shot at you with reduced firepower. Also, from your description of taking multiple turns to destroy a ship, and some ships "duelling" I still don't see how he did not fire a shot. It is almost like he deliberately tried to avoid getting a firing solution.

Setup 60cm away, first IN turn AAF 30-38cm, shotgun full strength torps into Chaos ships, now within 30cm range. Enemy cannot get out of range of potential broadside fire given relative positions and speeds. Chaos can avoid getting hit by both broadsides, or at least forestall it for a turn or two, but on the IN second turn they'll be shooting broadside guns.

[horizon]

Not getting a single shot? Woooooofus!

[Phthisis]

Sigiroth, is that how you set up against IN?

For that matter, do your opponents come straight into your Carnage's broadsides at close range?

These are strange concepts for a 'veteran'...

[Plaxor]

I don't think I've ever played a game with Gorbag where it didn't die. Generally my opponents focus on killing it first.

[Phthisis]

Taggerung is very wiley.  His fleet consisted of mostly Terror ships with some Ravagers.  Lots of torpedos.  He would AAF and shotgun them and Gorbag stayed in the rear for long range fire support.  I had more pressing matters than Gorbag for the first 3 turns.  After I slipped around his flank I was planning on spending some alone time with her, but alas she disengaged.