1500 Chaos Fleet Help?

[Sigoroth]

True.  Sigroth is being a bit too theoretical and simplistic here.  His examples are isolated ships in clean space with no blast markers.  Also, he is dealing in fractions of a hit, which don't exist in game.
Sigi, your list of advantages to the Carnage make no sense.What on earth do you mean by Carnages get more powerful as the game goes on?  Do yours get more guns for being cripples or shooting through a zillion blast markers?  Or do they form into Voltron? Same goes for 'greater focusable fire'.  How are you 'focusing' the fire in a way the Murder cant?  Both ships are deadly at abeam and primarily used as such. 

Er, it gets better because when the enemy close to 45cm the Carnage gets +6WBs. When they close to 30cm it gets a left column shift. When they close to 15cm it gets another left column shift. So at every range bracket the Carnage gets stronger. The Murder maintains the same firepower from its prow lances at any range. As for focus, well, I'm not sure how there can be any doubt. The Carnage focuses more firepower. The best that a Murder can focus on any one target is 10WB at 15cm. The Carnage can add its prow WBs to this, giving 16WBs. Therefore more focus. Same total equivalent firepower, but more focus.

The Murder is better at closing 6+ armor whether the Carnage is LO or not.

When on LO against a closing capital ship at long range with no BM (or normal range with a BM) the Carnage > Murder, though the difference is minuscule.When not locked-on, the Murders average 1/6 of a hit more. So 6 Murders vs 6 Carnages against an Imperial fleet will give +1 hit on average (6 instead of 5) and +60 pts in favour of the Murders. In return those Murders would take such a pounding as to make this advantage worthless, either through crippling, bracing or outright loss.

Heres something to think about Sigi.  Youre calculating the median average result from fire, but ignoring the rest of the bell curve.  Because you only acheive success 1/3 of the time, the curve is weighted towards the failure side.  Since fractions of hits don't happen, you cant save up two .5 hits to make 1 whole over 2 turns.  Those 2 half hits make zero hits.  Also, with each dice you are more likely to miss than hit.  This means that you are more likely to roll worse than the median than to roll better.  Its still possible to get 2 hits rather than 1 but it is much more likely the result will be zero than 2.  This means that the Carnage can easily underperform from Sigi's expectations.
Thats the theory never seems to pan out, especially when locked on.

Fail.

Ultimately it comes down to playing style.  Murders are better against 6+ armor and at range.  If you like to stay out of range and shoot, take the Murder variant.  If you like to get in close and scrap, Carnages are better than murders if you squadron them, but Slaughters would perform better with that style.

What? If you want to stay at range and shoot take the Carnages. If you want to close take Slaughters. If you want to be able to shoot on the way in take Hades. Don't take Murders at all.

[horizon]

You cannot stay at range with Murders because you have to close to use the Murders Lances.
Theory collapsed.

[Phthisis]

I'm not talking about the standard Murder.  I've been talking about the variant Murder with 2 lances front @ 60, 2 lances side at 45 and 4 WBs side at 45.  This is the ship I have been referring to all along.  I don't take the standard Murder because I like to stay at range and the WBs aren't as reliable at range.  This is why your arguments havent made any sense. Youre arguing against a ship that I'm not talking about.

I don't have my gunnery table handy, but at 45 abeam a Carnage gets 3 dice doesn't it?  Thats one hit on 5+ armor average for 16WBs.  I think the Murder's 4WBs turn into zero and it only gets 2 lances, which is also one hit.  So for 10pts cheaper you get equal damage.  On LO its still pretty even.  Against 6+ armor, the Murder's lances come in handy too.  Firing from 45cm at closing 6+ armor the Carnage gets 8 I think while the Murder gets 2WBs and 2 lances.  Again, about the same damage both regular and on LO for 10pts less.    Getting closer doesn't put the Carnage way above the Murder for damage output either.  They are pretty close in terms of damage.
The Carnage can hit abeam at 60 while the Murder can't but with only 2 dice.  The Murder can hit fore at 60 with considerable firepower, but the Carnage can't.  The Murder's off side is just as strong as its on side.  The Carnage's off side is 6WBs weaker than its on.   The Murders allow for lots of opportunistic fire, the Carnage does not.  But in the same situation they will perform about the same, although the Murder is cheaper.  I like the lance variant Murder than the Carnage because it is much more flexible than the Carnage.
That being said, Carnages are useful and I   advise taking one for 4+ armor and defences.

If Murders would take a beating being in front of prow armor, Carnages would take the same beating.

Don't just say fail to the mathhammer.  We aren't dealing with fractions of hits here.  Since each die has no memory or knowledge of what the other die roll, each die has a 1/3 or 1/6 chance of hitting.  Its easily possible that no die will score hits.  You are more likely to fail with each individual die with WBs than with lances, and youre more likely to success with each lancebdie than WBs.  You will tend to get more fails than above average rolls with WBs than Lances, and will get a more equal number of fails and above average rolls for lances.  This is because we only get a success or failure so only certain points on the curve are relevant and complete failure is an option.  The probability doesn't work the way you think here.

[Sigoroth]

I'm not talking about the standard Murder.  I've been talking about the variant Murder with 2 lances front @ 60, 2 lances side at 45 and 4 WBs side at 45.  This is the ship I have been referring to all along.  I don't take the standard Murder because I like to stay at range and the WBs aren't as reliable at range.  This is why your arguments havent made any sense. Youre arguing against a ship that I'm not talking about.

How can you say you "like to stay at range" and take a mid-range ship? If you take an abeam variant Murder over a closing normal Murder then you're sacrificing the range to get +4WBs and an abeam aspect. So you can't say you want range and then sacrifice it. Take the Carnage.

I don't have my gunnery table handy, but at 45 abeam a Carnage gets 3 dice doesn't it?  Thats one hit on 5+ armor average for 16WBs.  I think the Murder's 4WBs turn into zero and it only gets 2 lances, which is also one hit.  So for 10pts cheaper you get equal damage.  On LO its still pretty even.  Against 6+ armor, the Murder's lances come in handy too.  Firing from 45cm at closing 6+ armor the Carnage gets 8 I think while the Murder gets 2WBs and 2 lances.  Again, about the same damage both regular and on LO for 10pts less.

Yes, about even normally. Better against an abeam target with 5+ armour at long range. Worse against anything else when locked on. Significantly worse against closing 5+ armour.

When are you going to be pinging at long range against an abeam cap ship though? The vast majority of the time they will be closing 6+ armour. In which case the Carnage has a clear advantage in the 45-60cm range bracket and a slight advantage in the 30-45cm bracket. About the only time you'll be in such a long range duel would be against another Chaos fleet. In which case the Carnage has a distinct advantage over the Murder, as the Murder has to close to 45cm before it can start this duel, exposing its prow and then having to turn to stay parallel, foregoing LO. In essence, you give up the initiative for a very minimal advantage in a specific range band range against a very particular enemy.

Getting closer doesn't put the Carnage way above the Murder for damage output either.  They are pretty close in terms of damage.

No, they're not. Apart from the 0.83-1.52 hit advantage to the Carnage in the 45-60cm range band the largest difference between the two ships has been the 0.33-0.38 hit advantage to the Murder when using the far right column in the 30-45cm range band. When we move down to 30cm range, even against an abeam 5+ armour capital ship, the Carnage will do 0.67-1.28 more damage. How is this "pretty close"? Against a closing cap ship with 6+ armour the Carnage out-performs the lance Murder by 0.33-0.94 hits. Again, not really close. Even against an abeam cap ship with 6+ armour (line breaking a SM fleet??) the Carnage breaks even when on LO.

When we drop down to close range, 15cm or less, the Carnage really blows the Murder out of the water (so to speak). Closing cap ship with 6+ armour = 0.67-1.56 hit advantage to the Carnage. Against side armour it's a 1-2.94 hits (depending on sun/zone and LO). If you catch rear armour you could possibly get a double column shift for shooting into the sun. If you manage this while on LO (which certainly can happen) we're looking at a 4 hit advantage to the Carnage.

The Carnage can hit abeam at 60 while the Murder can't but with only 2 dice.  The Murder can hit fore at 60 with considerable firepower, but the Carnage can't.

Both ships will be rolling only 2 dice at 60cm against an abeam target. The Murder presents its prow to do so and gets to hit on a 4+ instead of a 5+. The way you say "only" two dice for the Carnage and "considerable firepower" for the Murder grossly misrepresents the actual differences.

However, the most disturbing point is that you consistently bring up abeam ships, as if most fleets aren't closing 6+ armour (IN, Ork, SM, Tau) for which the Carnage is just as good, or depend on holofields (CE, CWE, DE) for which the Carnage is superior or closing 5+ armour (Nids) in which the Carnage is greatly superior or a combination of closing/abeam 6+ (Necron) for which the Carnage is necessary. A few ships in a few of the afore-mentioned fleets are abeam and one fleet is consistently abeam (Chaos).

What's more, if performance against abeam cap ships is so important, presumably because no one in their right mind would close with 5+ armour, then why are you taking a ship that must close with the enemy to either use its prow weaponry or get to mid range? If people take these sorts of ships then closing 5+ ships must exist in which case the Carnage would be shooting at them so the damage comparison should not be against an abeam cap ship, but against a closing cap ship.

The Murder's off side is just as strong as its on side.  The Carnage's off side is 6WBs weaker than its on.   The Murders allow for lots of opportunistic fire, the Carnage does not.  But in the same situation they will perform about the same, although the Murder is cheaper.
I like the lance variant Murder than the Carnage because it is much more flexible than the Carnage.
That being said, Carnages are useful and I advise taking one for 4+ armor and defences.

The Carnage is more versatile (see the above list of usage), and opportunistic fire is not what you want from your dedicated gunship. The Chaos fleet has enough support ships to provide opportunistic fire. The Dev, Styx, Acheron, Desolator, even the Hades. The Carnage is what they should be supporting. The only other avenues of pure firepower are the Slaughter, which is an alternative fleet set-up, or the Repulsive, which is not numerous enough to be the sole source of your pure gunships.

Oh, and the Carnages off-side weaponry may be weaker than its on-side, but it's as strong as the Murders off-side.

If Murders would take a beating being in front of prow armor, Carnages would take the same beating.

The difference being that Carnages don't present their prows, Murders do.

Don't just say fail to the mathhammer.  We aren't dealing with fractions of hits here.  Since each die has no memory or knowledge of what the other die roll, each die has a 1/3 or 1/6 chance of hitting.  Its easily possible that no die will score hits.  You are more likely to fail with each individual die with WBs than with lances, and youre more likely to success with each lancebdie than WBs.  You will tend to get more fails than above average rolls with WBs than Lances, and will get a more equal number of fails and above average rolls for lances.  This is because we only get a success or failure so only certain points on the curve are relevant and complete failure is an option.  The probability doesn't work the way you think here.

Super fail.

Better?






TL;DR Summary - Carnage > Murder.

[Martini Henrie]

Sorry guys, but this debate has been done to death in other threads  .  It's not helping here.  Rather than frothing about statistics, I (and probably the author) am after help writing a 1500 point list that isn't going to be garbage until I learn which ships are worth taking and those that aren't, at an early level.

Can we get back on topic, which is what ships are usefull at 1500 points and which to avoid.  So far I am looking at not having BBs in the list as they seem to be a points sink.

Thanks again to those who have stayed on course and given advice.

[fracas]

2 carnages
2 devastations
2 slaughters
1 acheron
1 warmaster
escorts

[Phthisis]

I'm talking about using the lance Murder variant abeam, not closing, just like a Carnage.  I  stay at 30-45 because its optimum range for chaos for every ship.

2 lances firing = 2d6 hitting on 4+
Out of 36 possible combinations
9 are 0 hits 25%
18 are 1 hit 50%
9 are 2 hits 25%

3 batteries firing = 3d6 hitting on 5+
Out of 216 possible combinations
64 are 0 hits  30%
96 are 1 hit 44%
48 are 2 hits  22%
8 are 3 hits 4%

Against closing 6+ armor, the 2 lances are exactly the same as above.  For the Carnage, this is the result.
5d6 hitting on 6+
Out of 7776 possible combinations
3125 are 0 hits  40%

So the lances get a hit 75% of the time while the WBs only hit 60%.  Once again, with the rerolls from lock on, the lances get even further ahead than WBs.

2 lances between 30 & 45 are slightly better and more reliable than 16WBs.  The lances get even better than the WBs when locked on.
My statement was not a fail.  You have just been using sloppy math.
And for that you fail.


So, my recommendation for a balanced starter Chaos fleet at 1500pts. 
Using Plaxor's revised lists:
Obligatory Warmaster
3x Devestations
2x Murders lance variant
1x Carnage
1x Acheron.
3x Infidels or Idolators to taste
25pts left over for a Lord  or mark

12 AC squadrons for defense or offense
14 lances to deal with armor.
And yes, a Carnage will come in handy for defenses, Eldar, and soft rear Ork armor.  Make sure to shoot the Carnage before anything else. 

[Sigoroth]

Le sigh. And what do you think the Carnage/Murder debate is? A pointless exercise? Or perhaps one which tells you what is the best staple cruiser to take and which one should be avoided. To put it another way, in a 1500 pt list TAKE CARNAGES and try to avoid ships that have to close to be effective, like the Murder, Despoiler and Hades.

As has also been pointed out, the Dev is a good staple. The Desolator is a good ship. The Acheron is a good ship. The Styx is a good ship and finally cheap enough to actually consider taking. So fill your list with these ships and you won't go to far wrong. If you want to know ratios, well 12-14 AC is sufficient for a 1500 pt fleet so that's about half your points when you take into account your WM. For the other half you can take 4 Carnages. You can upgrade one Dev to a Styx and one Carnage to an Acheron and still have enough for a re-roll. If you're going to take Slaughters then take several. A single unsupported Slaughter will die quickly. Such a fleet might look like: Repulsive (255), Styx (260), WM + RR + CSM/MoN(160), 5 Slaughters (825).

[Sigoroth]

I'm talking about using the lance Murder variant abeam, not closing, just like a Carnage.  I  stay at 30-45 because its optimum range for chaos for every ship.

2 lances firing = 2d6 hitting on 4+
Out of 36 possible combinations
9 are 0 hits 25%
18 are 1 hit 50%
9 are 2 hits 25%

3 batteries firing = 3d6 hitting on 5+
Out of 216 possible combinations
64 are 0 hits  30%
96 are 1 hit 44%
48 are 2 hits  22%
8 are 3 hits 4%

Against closing 6+ armor, the 2 lances are exactly the same as above.  For the Carnage, this is the result.
5d6 hitting on 6+
Out of 7776 possible combinations
3125 are 0 hits  40%

So the lances get a hit 75% of the time while the WBs only hit 60%.  Once again, with the rerolls from lock on, the lances get even further ahead than WBs.

2 lances between 30 & 45 are slightly better and more reliable than 16WBs.  The lances get even better than the WBs when locked on.
My statement was not a fail.  You have just been using sloppy math.
And for that you fail.

Super-dooper fail?

My maths has not been "sloppy". It has been precise. I know that WBs use a right skewed distribution. If the aim was to get at least one hit every time then yes, take the lances. That is not the aim. The aim is to blow the enemy up. You want damage spikes. Damage spikes are good. Particularly from your main gunship. Lances are support weapons. Chaos has a tonne of lances. So what this means is that while the average number of hits between the two are similar (advantage still mostly to the Carnage) the Carnage is more likely to do significant hull damage whereas the Murder will only peck at shields or maybe drop 1 point of hull damage here or there. This does not make the opponent brace, does not cripple them and does not allow for spectacular success.

As for reliability, the Carnage again wins. The Carnage can take on any fleet. The Murder purely sucks against Eldar and against closing 5+ prows (Nids, closing Chaos fleets, crossing the prow on some other ships) the Carnage is so much better that they seem to be in another class. Against closing 6+ armour the Carnage is just as good and gets better under optimal conditions.

There just is no reason to take the Murder. Even if I was facing off against Space Marines I'd take the Carnage. It's the better choice. In fact, I believe that it's peoples' reliance on Murders that makes Chaos a mediocre fleet.

[Taggerung]

Eh...Sigiroth...

Do you actually play this game?

[Phthisis]

Ohhh... 'Damage Spikes' is your argument.

All your previous arguments seemed to drone on about how the Carnage would consistently outperform the Murder's lances by fractions of a hit, utilizing your 'precise maths' as you call them.  I didn't realize that your pot of gold with the Carnage was that 4-in-100 shot chance that you could get 3 hits instead of 2 abeam, or the even longer shot of getting more than 2 hits vs 6+ prow armor.  I guess if that floats your boat, go with it.  I'd rather get more consistent fire over the whole game of one or two hits per firing ship per turn, than have less reliable firepower in hopes of getting extremely lucky.
And if anyone is counting, the Murder variants are already holding their own against the Carnages with just the 2 lances.  But they also have 4 WBs that translate into at least 1 dice.  Throw that in there, and the Murder will have twice the chance of getting in 3 hits that a Carnage will.  There's your 'damage spike' and 'significant hull damage' comparison for you.

In terms of 'reliability', there are some situations where a Carnage comes in handy.  Eldar is one.  Defenses is one. 4+ armor is another.  There are also some situations where the Carnage is bloody useless and the lances of the Murder will come in handy.  Space Marines with 6+ armor all around is one.  Necrons with 6+ armor all around is one.  Escorts is one also. 

[Sigoroth]

Ohhh... 'Damage Spikes' is your argument.

All your previous arguments seemed to drone on about how the Carnage would consistently outperform the Murder's lances by fractions of a hit, utilizing your 'precise maths' as you call them.  I didn't realize that your pot of gold with the Carnage was that 4-in-100 shot chance that you could get 3 hits instead of 2 abeam, or the even longer shot of getting more than 2 hits vs 6+ prow armor.  I guess if that floats your boat, go with it.  I'd rather get more consistent fire over the whole game of one or two hits per firing ship per turn, than have less reliable firepower in hopes of getting extremely lucky.

You're not slightly retarded or anything are you? The average hits of the Carnage equals or surpasses that of the Murder. The times that the Murder has a clear advantage (0.38 hits) its "just a fraction of a hit" too. This is a FUCKING STUPID thing to say, by the way. Every single average in the game relies on "fractions of hits". A single lance averages 0.5 hits. Oh no! This is only a fraction! That means it'll never hit! Idiot.

The Carnage has significantly higher average hits across the course of a game. The Murder does not compare. In the most unfavourable of circumstances the Murder does all right. The Carnage is pretty close. Mere "fractions of a hit" difference. However, in the right circumstances the Carnage absolutely annihilates the Murder in terms of performance. The average difference is twice the damage output. This is the average difference. So, on average, one Carnage in optimal conditions is worth 2 lance Murders in the same conditions.

The minuscule advantage of the Murder in very specific circumstances does not equal the tremendous advantage of the Carnage in equally specific circumstances, let alone the advantage of position and range that the Carnage has.

Now, on top of that, the Carnages' damage is spiky. This is good for bypassing shields when there is little support and for making the enemy's choice to brace a difficult one (see the psychological advantages of the NC). If you're looking at a support ship then lances are better. You don't need to worry about position so much and can rely upon the less varied damage output to reach certain thresholds (such as crippling) without having to over-commit firepower. We're not talking about a support ship though, we're talking mainline gunship. I wouldn't recommend a ship with spiky damage over one with higher average damage simply because it's spiky.

So my argument relies upon three things. One, the Carnage is appropriate against all fleets, whereas the Murder is not. Two, the Carnage does higher average damage. Three, the Carnage has better range/defensive aspect. The fact that the Carnages damage is spiky is simply apropos to its role.

And if anyone is counting, the Murder variants are already holding their own against the Carnages with just the 2 lances.  But they also have 4 WBs that translate into at least 1 dice.  Throw that in there, and the Murder will have twice the chance of getting in 3 hits that a Carnage will.  There's your 'damage spike' and 'significant hull damage' comparison for you.

In terms of 'reliability', there are some situations where a Carnage comes in handy.  Eldar is one.  Defenses is one. 4+ armor is another.  There are also some situations where the Carnage is bloody useless and the lances of the Murder will come in handy.  Space Marines with 6+ armor all around is one.  Necrons with 6+ armor all around is one.  Escorts is one also. 

Wow, are you just incapable of doing simple maths? Against a closing Space Marine ship at 60cm range the Carnage with have 5 dice. That averages to 0.83 hits. The closing Murder will get 2 dice at 4+, giving an average of 1 hit. So you give up aspect to get 0.17 extra hits on average. The abeam Murder will get 0 hits at 60cm. Meaning to maintain the defensive aspect of the Carnage it gives up 0.83 hits. Clear advantage Carnage. Now let's look at it on LO. The closing Murder gets 1.5 hits on average, the abeam Carnage 1.52 hits on average. Close enough to be equal. But the Carnage has a more defensive aspect and is not closing with the enemy. Clear advantage Carnage.

Now let's look at 45cm, both abeam. The Carnage will get 8 dice, hitting on 6's. The Murder will get 2 dice hitting on 6's and 2 dice hitting on 4's. This averages to the exact same amount. Now look at them on LO. That's 2.11 hits for the Murder and 2.44 hits for the Carnage. Clear advantage Carnage.

Now let's look at 30cm. The difference between the ships is 8 dice at 6+ armour vs 2 dice at 4+. Surely even you can tell the former is much better. It gets even better for the Carnage on LO. Even when you pass right next to the SM ship, close range abeam, the Carnage is still better on LO.

And if you think that the Carnage is not useful against Necrons then you've no idea about this game. The Carnage is not a ship to take only against specific fleets. It works against every single fleet in the game.

[horizon]

Carnage = 10wb @ 60cm
Carnage = 16wb under 45cm

Murder (lance variant) = 2 lances @ 60cm if prow on
Murder (lance variant) = 2 lances & 4wb under 45cm

4wb above 30cm is laughable. Even the standard Murder is better then.


The Carnage is always better then the Murder. That's why you pay +10pts.

The lance Murder is crap in every possible way.

Chaos has enough lances.


Fraces gave an excellent fleet.

[Martini Henrie]

Ummm Phthisis and Sigiroth, thanks for your ideas but please take your argument somwhere approriate.  I'm really not one for stats, and the way my dice go stats are irrelevant.  All I'm after is a basic list that isn't going to suck so that I can get into the game with as little faffing about as possible.

I say again, have your argument about relative ships somewhere else!.

Repulsive (255), Styx (260), WM + RR + CSM/MoN(160), 5 Slaughters (825).  Sounds pretty interesting, would it hurt the list much to drop a Slaughter and take some escorts?

Thanks again to those on topic

[horizon]

lol,
stats are the core of the fleet selection.

I kinda dislike so much Slaughters in one fleet from a fluff/background story point of view.

You will also have a problem the Repulsive will end up quite alone due to much slower speed then Slaughters.