Nova Cannon limitations

[horizon]

It doesn't matter if you roll 10 dice at once.
Or 1 after 1.

It is the same amount of dice. Thus same stats. I think it is just a feeling you have about the dice. Not true values.

Also, since when is a base 5cm across? ... really? But at the <45cm distance the IN starts thinking: NC (unreliable, perhaps a hit and still only 1 hit vs a shield) or presenting broadside.

Also: I only squadroned once because a Protector rolled ld6 and a cheap Emissary Ld9. Ld7 is enough to go alone imo.

[RCgothic]

Gamblers ruin has more to do with the Gambler believing that because he's had a good run it's going to continue.

The next dice is always 1/6th chance of each face, regardless of how many you have rolled before.

Odds of missing with one shot: =(1-P(Hit))
Odds of missing with three shots: = (1-P(Hit))^3
Odds of missing with 4x three shots = ((1-P(Hit))^3)^4 = (1-P(Hit))^12
Odds of missing with 12 shots = (1-P(Hit))^12

[BaronIveagh]

Gamblers ruin has more to do with the Gambler believing that because he's had a good run it's going to continue.

IIRC that's actually called the Gambler's Fallacy.  Basically a 'fair coin' (being one that has exactly a 50/50 chance of coming up heads of tails) will approach 50/50 in proportion, but it never systemically be reduced to 0.  

Here's the thing: statistical regularity =/= real world.  If you roll dice, you'll find that it's close to 1/6 but does not equal it.  Further, imperfections in the die itself will bias it toward certain outcomes.  (hence why RPG players have 'lucky dice'.  Due to their manufacture process, some dice are naturally biased toward an outcome.  They aren't loaded, per se, but they're statistically going to roll one outcome more then another due to being biased.)

On bases: sorry, wrote that when not awake.  (I had grabbed a 40mm base out of the box by accident)  Against a large based ship such as a BB or GC, though, the point still stands.

[horizon]

Almost, not completely. The scatter will remain ineffective towards non-targetted ships (which was the starting point of this conversation).

I fail to see why the outcome between 12 dice at once is different then 12 dice after another. Same statistics apply.

[Vaaish]

I think the point is that although the same statistics apply, it may appear skewed with that small of a sample. So while the number of brace saves made to failed is statistically 50% if you calculated all the brace saves rolled in the world, in a small sample it would be possible to have someone fail 4 of 5 saves while someone else makes 4 of 5 saves without affecting the overall statistic.

In the same way 12 dice individually should roll the same as 12 at the same time statistically, but may not play out that way when rolled although if you did multiple tests the data should still balance out.

[BaronIveagh]

I think the point is that although the same statistics apply, it may appear skewed with that small of a sample. So while the number of brace saves made to failed is statistically 50% if you calculated all the brace saves rolled in the world, in a small sample it would be possible to have someone fail 4 of 5 saves while someone else makes 4 of 5 saves without affecting the overall statistic.

In the same way 12 dice individually should roll the same as 12 at the same time statistically, but may not play out that way when rolled although if you did multiple tests the data should still balance out.

In probability it's called a biased or 'unfair' coin.  It's a sample that, for what ever reason, tends to land heads or tails more often then it should.  In the real world, all coins are biased, as they are not mathematically perfectly smooth and even.  Small imperfections in the coin create turbulence that alters the outcome of the toss, etc.

[Sigoroth]

rolling 4 sets of 3 dice is identical to rolling 1 set of 12 dice. Now, can we move off this absurd topic.

[BaronIveagh]

rolling 4 sets of 3 dice is identical to rolling 1 set of 12 dice. Now, can we move off this absurd topic.

Talking to a wargamer about dice and probability is like talking to a D&D player about drow and succubi.  The conversation is bound to go to esoteric and possibly disturbing places. 

[RCgothic]

I'd say: switch roles as well, so rcG with IN NC heavy vs Chaos.

As requested, a swap of sides, with me playing Imperials, same list as before:


Imperial Fleet:

Mars, Ld9, Fleet Admiral w/re-roll            
Lunar/NC Ld8,
Lunar/NC Ld8,
Dominator Ld9,
Dominator Ld7,
Dominator Ld7,
Dominator Ld9,  
Total: 1480 points


Chaos Fleet

Squadroned:
Styx, Ld8, Chaos Lord w/re-roll          
Devastation, Ld8,
Devastation, Ld7,

Murder, Ld7,
Murder, Ld8,
Murder/lance variant, Ld8
Hades, Ld7,
2x Infidel, Ld6                          
Total: 1485 points

I started as far back as possible, with two groups in opposite corners (Lunar&2Doms + Mars, Lunar&2Doms), hoping to split his fleet to buy some more time for my nova cannons. He was having none of it, and matched my deployment ship for ship, so that the Carriers went after the smaller group, with the Murders and Hades going after the Mars group. Separations were 110cm and 95cm.

I got first turn. I moved forward the minimum distance with both groups. The trio fired at the carriers bearing down on them, but thanks to the squadron rules the 3 shots were 2 on a Dev and 1 on a Hades. He didn’t brace, and I scored 1 point of damage past shields on the Dev, no other hits.

For the second group, I fired my first shot against the lead murder, and he braced. I scored1 hit. The subsequent three shots attempted to target the next murder in line, but one failed and fired at the original, doing 1 more partial hit. The 2nd murder didn’t brace and took 1 hit past shields. Separations 101 and 86cm.
In his turn, he AAF’d with everything he could, bar the infidels, which failed. The Carrier squadron moved forwards 45cm and launched ordnance. He was now 56cm away, so he fired forwards at me, doing a couple of blast markers on the Lunar.

The murders closed the gap by 35cm, doing one hit past shields on the Lunar. Separation 51cm.

In my turn, I moved the ships facing the carriers almost as far forwards as possible, turning to cross in front of the carriers and cram them against the edge of the board, focus fire on the Dev also bringing their three waves of ordnance into broadside arcs. The Styx’s Ordnance was promptly vaporised by combined fire from the Dominators, whilst one of the Dev squadrons was hit by a lucky shot from the Lunar. The nova Cannons focussed fire on the lead undamaged Dev, scoring 2 hits past shields.

On the other side of the board, I moved forwards 15cm forwards towards the heart of his murder squadron. Nova cannon shots exclusively targeted the lead murder (the slightly damaged one – the one that only lost its shields fell back in formation as it couldn’t AAF) He braced it, but I was still grinning as my dice were lucky and came up three direct hits and 13pts of damage. He then picked up his 11 dice for brace saves and saved nine of them! D: I’d failed to cripple it, though a quick check showed that 6 shots against a braced cruiser over 2 turns couldn’t have expected as many as 3 hits anyway, so I was still above average. I did get a fire critical, but it was immediately repaired and the Mars promptly missed with its lances.

At this stage, both sides of the board were firmly within minimum range.

So back on the other side of the board, the Chaos ships reloaded Ordnance, and turned to cross my T instead of me crossing theirs. The chaos ships were now at point blank range, directly ahead of my trio. Firepower 18 and 6 lances against capital ship closing at close range – gulp! I immediately braced my Lunar, but that didn’t save it. Four hits from batteries, four from lances, 2 saved, engine room damaged and hull breach! Blazing hulk. Ouch. The dominators each took 2 hits hits from Ordnance after deciding not to brace – after the loss of the Lunar, I couldn’t afford not to lock on next turn.

On the other side of the board, the murders moved their 10cm and immediately turned to present broadsides. Again, he targeted the lead ship, the slightly damaged Lunar, and again capital ship closing was engulfed in firepower 34 and 4 lances, luckily not at close range this time! I braced it anyway, and a majority of his fire interfered with itself because of blast markers. Still, I didn’t save enough of the 6 hits to prevent him getting a shields collapsed critical and crippling it.

So a damaging turn for me. Locking on with the lone Dominators, I moved into the middle of the carrier squadron and fired out both sides, Styx on one side, Dev on the Other. The Styx took FP24 Capital Ship moving away at close range, whilst the Dev took FP24 against capital ship closing. He decided he couldn’t afford to take that amount of firepower, so decided to brace. And failed! Re-roll expended. Failed again! The Dev immediately took 10 hits and hulked. The Styx took 9 hits and a fire critical which it failed to put out. Warp Drive Implosion! All three remaining ships and the Infidels were caught in the blast, leaving behind 2 crippled Dominators and no infidels. The remaining Dev escaped with nothing but blast markers.

So lively as that was, back to the other side of the battlefield. I again locked on with my Dominators, but couldn’t line up such a good shot. The Hades presented Capital Ship Moving away, and after bracing I did it three hull hits and dorsal weapons offline. The Lunar did nothing at all, so it fell to the Mars to cripple the Hades and bring it down to 2 hits left with AC.

Total so far: Chaos have crippled 3 and destroyed 1, Imperials have destroyed 2 and crippled1.

Chaos Turn, and the remaining Dev passes broadside to the Dominators at close range. One broadside, failed brace check, and AC wave later, it’s down to one crippled Dom vs a healthy Dev. Eek. Those AC sure are nasty against crippled ships.

On the other side of the board, an Asteroid field briefly separates the two fleets, giving my Imperials brief respite.

The lack of suppressing fire allows the three operational Nova Cannon to draw a bead on the Dev, forcing it to brace and after 1 direct hit and 1 partial, doing 1 hit past shields. The crippled dominator did one more hit, causing a Port Battery Offline critical and buying itself yet more time.

The murder battlegroup once again crosses the T of the Mars battlegroup. A Dominator takes 1 hit past shields, and the Mars suffers 3. The crippled Dom on the other side of the board takes a further hit from the Dev’s WBs, and it also repairs its critical hit and reloads.

The Imperials are now looking pretty battered, with just one undamaged ship remaining. The crippled Dominator disengages, seeing itself in a no-win situation. The Lunar goes AAF, Ramming Speed! and strikes the lance murder in the flank, coming to rest in BtB. The murder braces, taking 2 hits, with the Lunar remaining undamaged and I figure what the hell, may as well board it! So I put a blast marker on the Lance Murder to help out, and manage to cripple one of the other murders.

The boarding action goes like this:

The Murder has D6(2), Chaos (+1), Enemy Ship Crippled (+2), Enemy on special Orders (+1), Own boarding value twice Enemy’s (+2) for a total of 8.
The Lunar has D6(5), Enemy on Special orders (+1), Blast Markers in contact (+1) for a total of 7, losing by 1 and being reduced to 1hit, which is promptly removed by a fire critical that went unrepared.

Unfortunately, the Murder also suffers a critical hit of Bulkhead Collapsed! and suffers four hits of damage, reducing it to two hits.

Chaos swiftly hits back, disengaging the lance murder and destroying the mars.

At this point we were out of time and had to pack up.

Results:
Imperial Fleet:
Mars, Destroyed, Hulked
Lunar,    Destroyed, Hulked
Lunar, Destroyed, Hulked
Dominator, Destroyed, Hulked
Dominator, Disengaged, Crippled, 6 Hits Suffered
Dominator Ld7, 3 Hits Suffered
Dominator Ld9,  2 hits Suffered
2 Ships remaining, 1 Crippled&Disengaged, 4 Destroyed.


Chaos Fleet

Squadroned:
Styx, Destroyed, Atomised
Devastation, Destroyed, Hulked
Devastation, 2 Hits Suffered.
Murder, Ld7, 2 Hits Suffered
Murder, Ld8, 2 Hits Suffered
Murder/lance variant, Disengaged, Crippled, 6 Hits Suffered
Hades, Ld7, Crippled, 6 Hits Suffered
2x Infidel, Ld6 Destroyed
4 Ships remaining (1 of which crippled), 1 Crippled and Disengaged, 2 Destroyed, 2 Escorts lost.

A solid Chaos Victory again. I really miss torpedoes on my capital ships. Quite a few times I had a pretty much perfect shot lined up, and I really felt the loss. by closing the distance quickly and clever use of the squadron and closest target rules, I completely failed to do any concentrated damage to any one ship, which left me very vulnerable at close range. The only thing I think he could have done better was to screen his cruisers with the infidels and force me to fire at them, but to be fair I usually hold my escorts back as well.

[BaronIveagh]

How far apart are you starting?

[RCgothic]

Separations were 110cm and 95cm.

Between the two main elements of both fleets at deployment.

[Sigoroth]

Good reports RCG. Quite a few notable events in the latest battrep. The deadly accuracy by the NC was immediately offset by his great brace saves, but I think that up close the Chaos player came off slightly worse in terms of luck. That double failed brace really damaged his carrier group. If braced I would expect to see one of them crippled or maybe destroyed and the other one just shy of crippling.

Of course, the explosion wouldn't have happened giving the Chaos player a couple of escorts, but then again, your Doms would have been shy of being crippled too, and maybe the braced and crippled carriers wouldn't have been able to do as much damage as the explosion and remaining carrier in the following turn. Still, I expect that the Styx and other Dev surviving would've been better in the long run.

Edit: By the way, though it was nice and unusual to get the ramming ship to finish in base contact, you still shouldn't have boarded.

[RCgothic]

I know, but once the Lunar ended up in BtB, I couldn't figure out what else it should do with its 1/4 normal firepower. I realise I probably got luckier than I should have done there.

Edit: A quick Mathammer later and a modifier difference of +4 means I REALLY shouldn't have been boarding. Just a 1/36 chance of a win and 5/6 chance of losing two or more hitpoints. Ouch! I will board with more care in future!

[BaronIveagh]

Separations were 110cm and 95cm.

Between the two main elements of both fleets at deployment.

Does everyone around here start this close?!?!  That's only a meter away from each other!

[RCgothic]

Given that the standard seperation distance is 60cm between deployment zones, I wouldn't call 110cm close.